Re: IP: Pac Bell says Net use may collapse phone system

["Fred R. Goldstein" <fgoldstein@bbn.com>]

  At 10:51 AM 10/28/96 -0500, James Love wrote:
  >On Mon, 28 Oct 1996, Fred R. Goldstein wrote:
  >> Yes, in the sense that the network (resi and others all together) is
  >> designed with the expectation that around 10% of the resi lines are in use
  >> at once.
  >
  >    Again, you have qualified this extensively, and I appreciate that.
  >But as a crude first approximation,,,, do you see our point?  If the 
  >ISP's only have one incoming line per every 10 to 20 customers, I don't 
  >see how the internet users differ that much in peak patterns from the 
  >voice network.  jamie
  
  Well, I can see the apples-to-oranges issue, but yes it's still not a
  useless analogy.  If you were to assume that the data calls were all on
  dedicated second lines, with a 10:1 ratio, then those lines would indeed be
  "typical". And my suspicion is that if the ISP runs a lower ratio *and* is
  charging a flat $20 a month or so, then the ISP is losing money!  (But then
  aren't we all? ;-) )
  
  If the internet usage were incremental usage atop existing voice usage on
  existing lines, then one could argue that it's pushing up usage.  But then
  so is any other application of the phone network!
  
  On-line data usage, Internet or otherwise (e.g., AOL, CIS, BBSs, etc.), has
  moved from being a very small number of users to becoming a mass market
  phenomenon.  By creating some incremental usage on existing lines, as well
  as some (but I doubt many) heavily-used additional lines, it has put a
  little pressure on flat-rate residential charging models.  But they don't
  really want to address that head on.  Measured residence service is not a
  viable option; given the growth of a competitive market, users will migrate
  in droves towards
  a flat-rate option if one exists.
  
  Current attempts by telcos to use traffic congestion as an excuse to
  monopolize the Internet access business must be stopped.
  ___
  Fred R. Goldstein      fgoldstein@bbn.com  
  BBN Corp.              Cambridge MA  USA    +1 617 873 3850