US$47 billion IMF threat will plug bloodbath

[Robert Weissman <rob@essential.org>]

Sydney Morning Herald
Friday, September 3, 1999
A$67 (US$47) billion threat will plug boodbath
By DAVID JENKINS, Asia Editor in Jakarta
The Indonesian Government was in disarray yesterday over the escalating
violence in East Timor, with the civilian government of President B. J.
Habibie wringing its hands and hinting at a possible foreign peacekeeping
force as an increasingly defiant army showed no sign it was willing to stop
instigating the unrest.
It now seems that nothing short of an international threat to pull the plug
on a $US43 billion ($67 billion) IMF bailout of the stricken Indonesian
economy will succeed in persuading Habibie to rein in his generals, who
have
made it plain in private briefings that they are determined to hold on to
East Timor at all costs.
A freeze on the disbursement of emergency aid could have a devastating
effect
on Indonesia's fragile economy, sending the rupiah into a new decline.
And as East Timor edges closer to anarchy, the Indonesian Army (TNI) is
looking for all the world like a runaway institution, supporting the
policies
of Habibie in public but working assiduously to undermine them in private.
"The only way to avoid a bloodbath and end the conflict is for the world
community to apply high-level economic pressure on the central government,"
said a Jakarta analyst with high-level army contacts.
"They will have to feel the intensity of the pressure. If it is only
statements of concern they won't take it seriously. Indonesians believe in
concrete things, in cash. Only if you withhold the cash and squeeze them
will
they listen.
"The outside world has to say we will not dispurse further credit and will
advise tourists not to come to the eastern part of Indonesia, meaning Bali.
It is no good threatening to send in a peacekeeping force, as New Zealand
has
suggested. That will produce a nationalist backlash and greater defiance."
Four days after the successful United Nations ballot in East Timor,
prominent
members of the Jakarta foreign policy elite are expressing dismay and
disbelief at the behaviour of the army and police in the territory. It is
no
secret in Jakarta that the army is behind the militia gangs sowing terror
there.
"I just don't know what is going on," said Sabam Siagian, a former
Indonesian
ambassador to Australia. "On the referendum day it was quiet and in the
following days one can't help get the impression that it was orchestrated.
"One day the Indonesian Army and police can control the situation. The next
day they either acquiesce or can't control it. "What's the political plan?
It
doesn't make any sense any more. From our side, what's the scenario? Just
to
create a mess? What for? Isn't Jakarta aware that the Western powers,
especially Washington, are using East Timor as a yardstick to judge whether
the Indonesian Government will adhere to an agreement?"
It was plain, even from television coverage, that Indonesian security
forces
acquiesced in the rioting, he said.
"The question is, what's the political scenario?
"While Indonesia is in dire need of international assistance that only the
Western powers can provide, either bilaterally or through multilateral
institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF, we are shooting ourselves
in
the foot. All in all, it's very disturbing."
Similar views are expressed by retired military officers, a number of whom
have held key diplomatic postings.
"I don't see any strategy [behind the current violence]", said Lieutenant
General Hasnan Habib, a former Indonesian ambassador in Washington and
Bangkok, whose last posting was roving ambassador to the Non-Aligned
Movement.
"It would have been much more logical if they had done this before the
voting
took place."
According to a civilian adviser who has worked closely with the army on
East
Timor, "the current army policy is reckless. There is no advanced strategic
thinking. "Three weeks ago these [top army] people said, 'There is no way
we
will give independence to the Timorese. If they win by the ballot, we will
win by the bullet'.
"But yesterday when [UN Secretary-General] Kofi Annan and the United States
and the entire world was crying out, they began to panic. They do not know
what to do. But beneath the surface they are [still] instigating violence.
This is all a mess. They have embarked on half-baked operations without
proper planning, just emotion."
Another source in the capital said: "Many in the military don't yet
comprehend that they can be told by a civilian president - a weak,
illegitimate joker of a president - what to do."
The Defence Minister and armed forces chief, General Wiranto, was a weak
commander, and the Foreign Minister, Ali Alatas, was "tired of Timor", the
source said.