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Sachs in NYT: Cancel the Debt of the Poor
New York Times
June 11, 1999
A Millennial Gift to Developing Nations
By JEFFREY D. SACHS
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. -- About 700 million people -- the
very poorest -- are held in
debt bondage by the rich countries. The so-called
Highly Indebted Poor Countries
are a group of 42 financially bankrupt and largely
destitute economies. They owe
more than $100 billion in unpayable debt to the World Bank,
the International Monetary
Fund, regional development banks and donor governments,
often reflecting the failures of
past development loans.
Many of those loans were made to tyrannical regimes to suit
cold war aims. Many simply
reflect misguided ideas of the past. The moral and practical
case for freeing these countries
from their debt bondage is overwhelming.
Jubilee 2000, an organization supported by people as diverse
as Pope John Paul II, Jesse
Jackson and Bono, the rock star, has called for outright
elimination of the debt burden of
many of the world's poorest countries. This idea is often
scoffed at as unrealistic, but it is the
"realists" who fail to understand the economic opportunities
facing the world today.
The financial bankruptcy of the poorest countries has been
evident for at least 15 years, but
the I.M.F., the World Bank and the rich countries have
delayed real solutions to this chronic
problem. The World Bank and I.M.F. take great pride in
claiming that their loans never go
bad. So instead of recognizing reality, they lend the
poorest countries new money to repay
the old debts, claiming that the loans are still sound.
Economics ministers from poor nations spend all of their
time negotiating to stay one small
step ahead of outright default, without the time or
financial stability to address long-term
problems. The only winners are the staffs of the I.M.F. and
World Bank, which have
invented a perpetual motion machine for endless missions to
these hapless countries.
In 1996, the creditors inched toward slightly bolder
measures. The I.M.F. and World Bank
announced a relief program with great fanfare, but without
including any true dialogue with
the affected countries.
Three years later, these plans have failed. Just two
countries (Bolivia and Uganda) were
given about $200 million, while 40 others continue to wait
in line. In this same period, the
stock market wealth of the rich countries has grown by more
than $5 trillion, more than 50
times the debt owed by the 42 poor countries.
So it's a cruel joke for the world's wealthy governments to
protest that they can't afford to
cancel the debts. The poorest nations owe about $106 billion
in total to the I.M.F., World
Bank, international commercial banks and rich-country
governments. The I.M.F. is sitting
on $22 billion of unrealized capital gains on its gold
reserves, since it values its gold at $47
per ounce rather than the true market value of $262 per
ounce.
By selling just a third of its gold reserves, it could
achieve the $7.8 billion needed to write
off the debts to the International Monetary Fund in their
entirety, without even touching the
remaining balance sheet. In addition, the I.M.F. balance
sheet already abounds with special
reserve accounts intended to absorb loan losses in an
orderly way.
Similarly, the World Bank could readily absorb a full
writedown of its claims out of its own
resources. It would have to use special reserve funds
already set aside for loan losses, dip
slightly into its capital base and slim down its future
lending to the poor countries. But with
debt relief, the poor nations would no longer need this
financing at the same level.
The commercial banks in total have claims of about $19
billion, a tiny fraction of their
lending to developing countries. Most of this is already
written off in their balance sheets, so
a full writeoff would be easily absorbed.
The United States, for its part, isn't so foolish as to
count its roughly $6 billion of claims on
the poor nations at face value. These loans are already
carried on the books at about 10
percent of their face value, or around $600 million. Thus,
to cancel entirely the American
claims on the poorest countries would require a budget
outlay of just $600 million. The
situation is analogous for other creditor governments.
Rough guidelines might hold that 80 percent or so of the
debts would be canceled outright.
The remaining 20 percent would be repaid in local currency,
for uses in new social programs
aimed at overcoming the multiple crises of health,
nutrition, water and sanitation that threaten
the very survival of these societies.
The problems of H.I.V. and AIDS, malaria, malnutrition and
water control all cross national
boundaries, especially in Africa. Therefore, we should
insist that Africa's regional
groupings, like the Southern African Development Community,
help set the terms. By
forcing cooperation among the poor countries, the donors
would be emulating the strategy of
the United States in designing the Marshall Plan, which
achieved success in part by fostering
extensive economic cooperation among European countries.
Important leaders throughout Africa, tested at the ballot
box, are in place to lead this effort,
including President Obasanjo of Nigeria, Thabo Mbeki of
South Africa, Navin Ramgoolam
of Mauritius and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda. In the case of
the poor countries, today's
visionaries may prove to be the realists.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is the director of the Center for
International Development at Harvard
University and serves as an economic adviser to Jubilee 2000
and to many developing
countries.
Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company