[stop-imf] IMF: threat of uncertain corporate profits

[Robert Weissman]

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2002/02/index.htm

Below is the table of contents from the IMF's most recent global
financial stability report. Key message: "The near-term outlook appears
largely free of imminent threats, but one source of uncertainty remains:
corporate profits."

This document is available on as a pdf file.

Global Financial Stability Report
A Quarterly Report
on Market Developments and Issues
une 2002


                                                      ©2002
International Monetary Fund
                                                      Ordering
Information

                                                       The Global
Financial Stability Report provides quarterly assessments of global
financial markets and
                                                       addresses
emerging market financing in a global context.



Contents

Preface

                                                           Chapter I.
                                                          140k pdf file

Overview

Corporate Profitability Impacts on Financial Markets

Corporate Profitability and the Banking Sector

Financial Market Activities of Insurance Companies

Developments in Emerging Markets

Local Equity Markets

                                                          Chapter II.
                                                          269k pdf file

Recent Developments

Mature Markets

Mature Market Vulnerabilities--The Weakness in Japan's

Banking Sector

Emerging Market Developments and Financing

References

                                                          Chapter III.
                                                          140k pdf file

The Financial Market Activities of Insurance and Reinsurance

Companies

Insurance and Reinsurance Financial Activities

Financial Efficiency and Stability Questions Raised by

Insurers' Financial Activities

Some Concluding Thoughts

References

                                                          Chapter IV.
                                                          155k pdf file

Emerging Equity Markets

Emerging Market Equities as an Asset Class for Foreign Investors

Domestic Equity as an Alternative Source of Funding

Conclusions

References

                                                               Boxes
                                                                 2.1

Enron: Lessons Learned and the Response
                                                                 2.2

Mature Equity Market Valuations
                                                                 2.3

Are Forward Short Rates Useful Indicators of Market Expectations?
                                                                 2.4

The Shrinking U.S. Commercial Paper Market
                                                                 2.5

The Balance of Risks for Emerging Equity Markets

                                                              Tables
                                                                 2.1

Performance of Mature Equity Market Sectors, 2002: Q1
                                                                 2.2

Emerging Market Financing Overview
                                                                 2.3

Index Performance
                                                                 2.4

Performance of Emerging Bond Markets
                                                                 2.5

Sovereign Spreads and Ratings
                                                                 2.6

Currency of Issuance
                                                                 2.7

Performance of Emerging Equity Markets
                                                                 3.1

Life Insurance: Premium Growth Rates
                                                                 3.2

Profitability Decomposition of Major Non-Life Markets
                                                                 4.1

Equity and Bond Returns

                                                             Figures

                                                                 2.1

Evolution of Consensus 2002 GDP Growth Forecasts
                                                                 2.2

Liquidity and Credit Premia Index
                                                                 2.3

Mature Equity Market Dollar-Denominated Indices
                                                                 2.4

International Yield Curve Differentials
                                                                 2.5

Expected Policy Rates: Federal Funds Futures, 2002
                                                                 2.6

Credit Market Spreads
                                                                 2.7

European Credit Market Spreads
                                                                 2.8

Japan Credit Curves
                                                                 2.9

Major Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar
                                                                2.10

Emerging Markets Financing
                                                                2.11

Emerging Market Spreads
                                                                2.12

Bond Issues
                                                                2.13

Average Correlations of the Returns on Emerging Equity Markets Indices
                                                                2.14

Net Inflows into U.S. Equity Mutual Funds
                                                                2.15

Emerging Market Earnings Forecasts
                                                                2.16

Equity Placements
                                                                2.17

Syndicated Loan Commitments
                                                                2.18

Loan-Weighted Interest Margin
                                                                2.19

Latin American Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar
                                                                2.20

Asian Currencies: Cross Rates Against the Yen
                                                                2.21

Asian Currencies: Non-Deliverable Forward Implied Yields
                                                                 3.1

Total Financial Assets of Institutional Investors and Banks: United
States

and Japan
                                                                 3.2

Financial Assets of Institutional Investors and Banks: Selected Euro
Area

Countries and United Kingdom
                                                                 3.3

Holdings of Financial Securities by Insurance Companies and Banks
                                                                 3.4

Holdings of Securities Relative to Domestic Market Size
                                                                 3.5

United States: Corporate and Foreign Bonds
                                                                 3.6

Balance Sheet Assets of Insurance Companies: United States and Japan
                                                                 3.7

Balance Sheet Assets of Insurance Companies: Selected Euro Area

Countries and United Kingdom
                                                                 3.8

Global Insurance Industry Results
                                                                 3.9

Non-Life Insurance: Combined Ratios in the Industrial Countries
                                                                 4.1

Equity and Bond Performances
                                                                 4.2

Risk-Return Trade-Off for Emerging Market and U.S. Stock Portfolios
                                                                 4.3

Valuation Indicators in Emerging Equity Markets
                                                                 4.4

Correlations Between Returns in Emerging and U.S. Equity Markets
                                                                 4.5

Stock Market Capitalization and Bank Credit
                                                                 4.6

Domestic and International Equity Issuance