[Ip-health] Financial Times- Drug groups to reap swine-flu billions

[Terri - Louise Beswick]

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Drug groups to reap swine-flu billions=0D
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By Andrew Jack in London=0D
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Published: July 20 2009 19:40 | Last updated: July 20 2009 23:43=0D
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Some of the world=E2=80=99s leading pharmaceutical companies are reaping bi=
llions of dollars in extra revenue amid global concern about the spread of =
swine flu <http://www.ft.com/indepth/swine-flu> .=0D
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Analysts expect to see a boost in sales from GlaxoSmithKline <http://market=
s.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=3Duk:GSK> , Roche <http://markets.ft.=
com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=3Dch:RO>  and Sanofi-Aventis <http://marke=
ts.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=3Dfr:SAN>  when the companies report=
 first-half earnings lifted by government contracts for flu vaccines and an=
tiviral medicines.=0D
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The fresh sales =E2=80=93 on top of strong results from Novartis <http://ma=
rkets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=3Dch:NOVN>  of Switzerland and Ba=
xter <http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=3Dus:BAX>  of the =
US, which both also produce vaccines =E2=80=93 come as the latest tallies s=
how that more than 740 people have died from the H1N1 virus, and millions h=
ave been affected around the world.=0D
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GlaxoSmithKline of the UK confirmed it had sold 150m doses of a pandemic fl=
u vaccine =E2=80=93 equivalent to its normal sales of seasonal flu vaccine =
=E2=80=93 to countries including the UK, the US, France and Belgium, and wa=
s gearing up to boost production.=0D
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GSK also produces Relenza, an antiviral medicine that reduces the length an=
d severity of the infection, and is preparing to increase manufacturing tow=
ards 60m annual doses. The UK placed an order for 10m treatments this year.=
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One beneficiary of the fears about the pandemic has been Roche of Switzerla=
nd, which sells Tamiflu, the leading antiviral drug, and has seen a sharp r=
ise in orders from private companies as well as governments.=0D
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A report last week from JPMorgan, the investment bank, estimated that gover=
nments had ordered nearly 600m doses of pandemic vaccine and adjuvant =E2=
=80=93 a chemical that boosts its efficacy =E2=80=93 worth $4.3bn (=E2=82=
=AC3bn, =C2=A32.6bn) in sales, and there was potential for 342m more doses =
worth $2.6bn.=0D
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It forecast that fresh antiviral sales could boost sales for GSK and Roche =
by another $1.8bn in the developed world, and potentially up to $1.2bn from=
 the developing world.=0D
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But there were also uncertainties for the pharmaceutical manufacturers. Wit=
h demand likely to outstrip supply, and initial production suggesting that =
the yield for the pandemic vaccine is relatively low, they may face difficu=
lt choices in determining how much to supply to the countries seeking order=
s.=0D
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They are also under pressure to provide more drugs and vaccines for free, o=
r extremely cheaply, to the developing world.=0D
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/375dde06-7559-11de-9ed5-00144feabdc0.html=0D
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