[Ip-health] The economics of mass HIV retroviral treatment]

[Michelle Childs]

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: [A2k] The economics of mass HIV retroviral treatment
From:    "Ian Brown" <I.Brown@cs.ucl.ac.uk>
Date:    Sat, August 12, 2006 4:58 am
To:      "a2k discuss list" <a2k@lists.essential.org>
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http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/health/article.jsp?content=20060814_131886_131886

Dr. Julio Montaner, the Argentinian-born director of the internationally
acclaimed B.C. Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS and president-elect of
the International AIDS Society, doesn't exactly think small...

Montaner estimates that approximately 43,000 cases of HIV infection in
North America were averted in 2005 due to [highly active anti-retroviral
therapy]; this translates to a savings of US$10.3 billion, based on an
estimated lifetime treatment cost of US$241,000 per person.
Extrapolating on a global scale, Montaner says that if every single
HIV-infected individual was given therapy, the prevalence of HIV could
be reduced from more than seven cases per 1,000 to 0.1 case per 1,000 in
45 years. The price for such an endeavour? A staggering US$338 billion
over 45 years, based on a cost of $365 for generic HAART drugs per
person per year.

Montaner is unperturbed by the figures. "Although this would entail a
significant expenditure upfront because you will be treating 40 million
people in the world as opposed to four million, the curve of
expenditures for the 40 million will drop steadily, so that in a decade
or two you actually break even, and after that you're laughing all the
way to the bank," he says...

As for the bill? "If you think about economics, you develop a product
for a given market and you do your calculations," says Montaner. "You
could say [to drug companies], 'Look, I'm going to protect your profits.
You generated this drug with a profit that was based on the North
American market or European market or whatever. You know what? We'll
give you full profit for that. On top of that, we're going to give you a
premium so that you can make drugs for free to distribute to the rest of
the world.' " He adds: "If marketing pressures can allow you to get a
can of Coke in every corner of the world, that proves that distribution
chains are not, should not, and cannot be an impediment to doing what is
right."
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--
Michelle Childs -Head of European Affairs
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