[Intl-tobacco] One billion smoking-related deaths in 21st century projected

[robert weissman]

Dire Predictions On Tobacco Deaths
WASHINGTON, July 10, 2006(CBS/AP)

Curbing tobacco use and taking other steps to eliminate some of the most
common risk factors for cancer could save millions of lives over the
next few decades, health officials said Monday.

Tobacco alone is predicted to kill a billion people this century, 10
times the toll it took in the 20th century, if current trends hold.

"In all of world history, this is the largest train wreck not waiting to
happen," said John Seffrin, chief executive officer of the American
Cancer Society.

Reducing tobacco use would have the single largest effect on global
cancer rates, Seffrin and other health officials said Monday in
unveiling two reference guides that chart global tobacco use and cancer.

Changing diets to contain fewer saturated fats and more fruits and
vegetables, as well as reducing infection by cancer-causing viruses and
bacteria, could also cut rates dramatically, they said.

"We know with cancer, if we take action now, we can save 2 million lives
a year by 2020 and 6.5 million by 2040," said Dr. Judith Mackay, a World
Health Organization senior policy adviser.

Today, tobacco accounts for one in five cancer deaths, or 1.4 million
deaths worldwide each year, according to the new Cancer Atlas. When
deaths from tobacco-related cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases are
included, the yearly death toll rises to nearly 5 million and it's
expected to keep going up.

Public health officials also said Monday that the number of teenagers
smoking is again on the rise, reports CBS News correspondent Sharyn
Alfonsi. For the first time in a decade the number of teen smokers grew
=97 from about 21.9 percent in 2003 to 23 percent in 2005. Seffrin tells
Alfonsi that this seemingly tiny increase is a big, red flag.

"I see the stopping of a decline," he says. "When you quit spending
money on interventions that work, unfortunately, you can go backwards in
this world."

Seffrin says lawmakers are blowing it by cutting funding for prevention
efforts and refusing to regularly raise taxes on cigarettes =97 a proven
way to discourage teen smokers. Meanwhile, reports Alfonsi, a new report
shows tobacco companies have nearly tripled the amount of money they
spend on advertising, from $5 billion to $15 billion in just five years.
In addition, she reports, researchers say smoking on the big screen is
at levels not seen since the 1950s.

An estimated 1.25 billion men and women currently smoke cigarettes, and
more than half of them will die from the habit, according to the newly
issued second edition of the Tobacco Atlas.

The two atlases were released Monday at an International Union Against
Cancer conference. The two statistics-packed guides are meant as
reference guides for doctors, politicians, academics, students and
attorneys who work on cancer and tobacco control.

Lung cancer remains the major illness among the 10.9 million new cases
of cancer diagnosed each year, according to the Cancer Atlas. And it is
not likely to be bumped from its perch: In countries like China, where
300 million men now smoke, lung cancer could eventually kill a million
smokers a year, Seffrin said.

The authors and researchers responsible for the atlases fear that a
reduction in the global prevalence of smoking would do little to curb
what they called the "tobacco epidemic."

"Even if smoking rates decline worldwide, there will be a constant or
even slightly increasing number of smokers due to population increases,"
said Michael Eriksen, director of the Institute of Public Health at
Georgia State University.

In 2002, besides the nearly 11 million new cancer cases worldwide, there
were nearly 7 million cancer deaths. By 2020, officials anticipate there
will be 16 million new cases a year and 10 million deaths. An estimated
70 percent of those deaths will occur in developing countries, according
to the Cancer Atlas. The number of new cases is largely the result of
the increasing proportion of older people in the world.

The risk of developing cancer is higher in the developed world,
according to the Cancer Atlas. In the United States, for instance, the
probability someone will develop cancer by age 65 is nearly 18 percent.
In Oman, the probability is just shy of 6 percent. Still, cancers in
developing countries are more often fatal.

The American Cancer Society published the two atlases with help from the
International Union Against Cancer, WHO and Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention. English, French and Spanish editions are now available;
Chinese language versions are due later this year.