[Am-info] Fwd: Lewis to Apple: Give it up!

[Mitch Stone]

I was cleaning out an old mailbox and found this, dated 4 March 1997. I 
wonder how Ted's book sold?

Mitch

Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: http://www.upside.com/companies/ted.html
>
> Apple's Big OS Mistake
>
> By Ted Lewis
>
> Apple Computer's attempt to halt its long slide into obscurity by buying
> Next Inc. was a consequence of the company's failure to develop its own
> next-generation operating system, Copland, and an act of desperation.
>
> Apple's Mac OS may not be able to cut it anymore, but NextStep never even
> had a day in the limelight. The Next operating system is built on top of
> the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) Unix clone, MACH, which was an
> innovative research operating system--a decade ago. It essentially
> reduced the complexity of Unix, incorporating microkernel technology and
> concepts borrowed from object-oriented software to achieve an elegant
> level of functionality without sacrificing speed. Its microkernel
> provides multitasking and resource management services, but leaves out
> just about everything else, thus simplifying portability and maintenance.
>
> Myriad other operating system services can be layered on top of a
> microkernel such as MACH. Depending on these layers, MACH can take on the
> appearance of Windows NT or NextStep. Windows NT looks and behaves
> differently than NextStep, even though the microkernels are similar
> (Microsoft hired some leading MACH developers from CMU to create Windows
> NT). OpenStep is Next's layer above MACH, which makes NextStep unique.
>
> When Steve Jobs unveiled NextStep at San Francisco's Davies Symphony Hall
> on October 12, 1988, it was as radical and innovative as the original
> Macintosh. In fact, it may have been too innovative. It was written in
> Objective C rather than C or C++, used display PostScript instead of
> raster graphics and eschewed the 3.5-inch floppy disk drive in favor of a
> CD-ROM drive. All software distribution would be done on CD-ROMs within a
> few years, proclaimed Jobs, and all graphics would be done in display
> PostScript. The world would follow Jobs, not the other way around. This
> techno-soap opera sent developers scurrying to pump product into the Next
> channel. The only problem was, it was an artificial reality. None of it
> happened.
>
> Apple's adoption of a decade-old technology will repeat the failure of
> Next. The computer industry does not yearn for yet another operating
> system, no matter how good it is. Superior Unix programs and Novell's
> NetWare are already under heavy attack by the evolving Windows NT
> juggernaut. Today's MIS manager is already hard-pressed to justify the
> diversity presented by Unix, Windows, the Mac OS and NetWare. The urge to
> standardize must necessarily squeeze out someone. So why would any MIS
> manager swim against the Darwinian tide and adopt yet another platform?
>
> It is wrong-headed to think Next will restore Apple's leadership in
> innovation. In today's calcified PC industry, innovation means better and
> faster versions of Microsoft Windows, not different and more proprietary
> non-Microsoft solutions. It means fitting in, not standing out. NextStep
> is a mistake because it asks corporate bean counters to replace Windows
> with a marginally better, nonstandard, proprietary, incompatible
> platform. Apple's strategy won't work.
>
> NT is the Right Stuff
>
> The "new" Apple should fight fire with fire and copy Microsoft's
> "embrace-and-extend" strategy. Look how effective embrace and extend has
> been against Netscape and Novell. If it can work for Microsoft, why not
> use it against Microsoft? With an embrace-and-extend strategy, Apple
> could beat Wintel at its own game.
>
> How? Apple should license Windows NT, get back into corporations and head
> off future declines in consumer sales. It can simultaneously overcome its
> image as a vendor of proprietary wares and inherit a large installed base
> of users, as well as ready-to-wear applications. Third-party developers
> would fill in the gaps.
>
> Third-party developers are already a step ahead of Apple. Many pre-press,
> graphics and publishing professionals are already abandoning the Mac OS
> in favor of NT because of the migration of Mac OS applications to NT.
>
> Developers want a large installed base. Instead of appealing to the Mac
> tribe, Apple could appeal to the human tribe. Rather than feeding off of
> the 20 million Mac ditto heads, Apple could feed off of 200 million
> Wintel heads. This larger installed base would allow Apple to regain
> market share.
>
> Since Apple must guard its flank with some kind of Windows NT/PowerPC
> move anyhow, why not pour all of its efforts into NT? Its partners in the
> PowerPC initiative, IBM and Motorola, are abandoning their NT-on-PowerPC
> development. This will unravel the PowerPC platform thrust and further
> weaken Apple unless the new Apple does something with NT.
>
> Sure, NT is inferior technology, but that's Apple's opportunity. It could
> add its innovative GUI, network, installation and support facilities to
> NT. If Apple can offer superior GUI and tools on top of NT, it could
> steal the API mindshare from Microsoft and put itself in Microsoft's
> driver's seat.
>
> Apple could become a major cross-platform vendor as well. If Apple made
> NT run on MIPS and DEC Alpha processors, the growth opportunity would
> double Apple's stock price. Apple could continue to sell the
> best-performing hardware, but its main cash flow would derive from
> hundreds of millions of upgrades every year.
>
> Wanted: Predatory Instincts
>
> Even if Apple pulls off the Great Migration from Mac OS to Next, and even
> if there is market share waiting at the end of the tunnel, Apple must
> still ward off the "Osborne Effect." With a shortage of applications on
> NextStep right now and backward compatibility at least a year away,
> Apple's Waterloo may be a repeat of Osborne Computer's demise, as people
> abandon the current system in anticipation of the new one.
>
> At MacExpo, Apple CEO Gil Amelio tried to defuse the threat of the
> Osborne Effect by announcing plans to roll out three more upgrades of the
> Mac OS over the next two years. This ploy was obviously designed to keep
> the rats aboard ship.
>
> Of course, if Apple were to announce support for Windows NT, sales of Mac
> OS-based systems might still dry up. But Microsoft already has a PowerPC
> version of Windows NT 5.0 in the wings. The time to market for Apple
> appears to be much less with NT than with Mac on NextStep. With
> applications already up and running for NT, this head-start could sustain
> sales long enough to get the new Apple through the transition. Apple's
> vulnerability to the Osborne Effect is less with NT than it is with
> NextStep.
>
> Apple needs to learn to give away the razors so it can sell the blades.
> Windows NT is a great razor, and Apple extensions would be a great razor
> blade business. Apple's ability to create a wonderful user experience by
> adding user interface layers such as OpenStep, ahead-of-the-pack
> multimedia (QuickTime, QuickTime VR) and Internet authoring software
> (HotSauce, Cyberdog, etc.) would return the company to its former
> leadership position in the industry. NextStep will simply delay the
> inevitable. Apple appears to be letting emotional anti-Microsoft
> sentiment cloud its thinking. A clear-headed strategy dictates support
> for NT, not NextStep.
>
> Good business decisions are rarely so bloodless, but in this case, Apple
> should have given reign to some old-fashioned, calculating, rational,
> predatory instincts.
>
> Ted Lewis is president of Technology Assessment Group and author of the
> forthcoming book, The Friction-Free Economy, published by HarperCollins.
> He can be contacted by e-mail at tedglewis@friction-free-economy.com.
> --