[A2k] New York Times: Facing Free Software, Microsoft Looks to Yahoo

[Taran Rampersad]

Ciaran O'Riordan wrote:
> Thiru Balasubramaniam <thiru@keionline.org> writes:
>
>> =E2=80=9CMost of what you need is on the Internet =E2=80=94 and it=E2=80=
=99s free,=E2=80=9D he said.
>> =E2=80=9CThere are early warning signs that the traditional Microsoft pr=
ograms
>> are losing their grip.=E2=80=9D
>>
>
> When he says "free software" he means "web services" (that you don't pay
> for).  About the idea that Microsoft's software will be replaced by web
> services, I hope he's wrong, and I think that he is wrong.
>
> With web services, you usually don't have access to your raw data, and yo=
ur
> service provider can spy on you endlessly and deny you access whenever th=
ey
> want.  In terms of control/freedom, using web services is slightly worse
> than using Microsoft's software.
>
> There are two reasons why I think he's wrong.  One is that in the age of
> 2Ghz laptops, it doesn't make sense for people to use a centralised remot=
e
> server for their applications.  It's unnecessary and it's inefficient.
>
> Number two is that I guess he saw a rise in web services and made the
> overly-simplistic deduction that this shows that people like web services=
.
> More accurately, I think the recent rise in web services shows that peopl=
e
> dislike Microsoft's software (usually for cost or incompatibility reasons=
).
> When trying to get away from Microsoft's software, the first option many
> will try is web services (because migration is easy), but they will
> eventually notice similar problems with web services.  If we raise awaren=
ess
> about free software, the next option they try might be GNU/Linux and othe=
r
> pieces of real free software.
>
Agree with Ballmer's misuse of the phrase 'Free Software', of course.
And if we agree that web services is what Ballmer really meant (I doubt
he is as uninformed as he appears), then I agree that web services are
going to become dominant. In fact, in some ways they already have.

Ciaran makes valid points. The desktop is simply great for running your
applications, etc. However, if you want to share your documents, web
services are the way to go. Last time I checked, global internet
penetration was at 17.8%. The recently released UNCTAD Information
Economy Report 2007-2008 says 17.3% as of 2006. This is up from (as I
recall) 15% the previous year. Internet penetration has more to do with
people not using Microsoft's software. Plenty of people use Microsoft's
software, and where they have no access it is most likely that the
Microsoft software in use is unlicensed. But desktop application growth
has arguably peaked. Its on a plateau. The new growth market includes
all these new people on the web.

Mobile phone usage is on the upswing - a serious upswing - and has been
for at least 2 years. Many of us said 'the mobile is the future' around
then; keyboards still suck and viewing data on mobile phones also sucks.
Someone will fix both over time. But mobile phones are where developing
nations are making the most headway when it comes to ICT. In essence, a
lot of the *80%* of the people on the planet may simply be in the
process of bypassing the desktop and laptop just as some have bypassed
the mainframe and miniframe computers of the past. Granted, a handheld
can do a lot - the Simputer certainly does (I have one), but that is a
culture-context specific system. In the future, a mobile phone will do
more. They're already leaps and bounds ahead of every other
informational technology as far as penetration and use. The new desktop
has been the mobile phone for quite some time. Photos, SMS text
messages, etc. SMS text messages do not have attachments - but you can
use links. Enter web services, again.

Web services also include the sale/sharing of information, which are a
growing part of the global economy. The future will be defined by what
the majority of people use to move data around. The desktop is a
minority when it comes to this.

Due to the nature of this sort of atomization of data, where shared
information has more value than closed information, web services are the
future. They have been for some time. Flickr and services along those
lines are brilliant examples of this, especially in conjunction with the
Creative Commons licensing.

The danger of web services is the transactional cost as well as network
neutrality. Even software licensing goes out the window when it comes to
providing the services, because even with a GPL'd piece of code the code
does not have to be distributed unless the application is. I was
somewhat surprised at RMS's stance on Network Neutrality because of
this, but that is another kettle of refried beans. Network Neutrality,
or lack of it, is the new business. Microtransactions for data. Where
once people were worried about access to information based on the
desktop applications used, telecom regulation has popped up as the de
facto most important matter. That a friend of mine in the Congo, who I
met at the MobileActive conference in 2005, spends $1 US per SMS message
and is only allowed one per day is of more interest to development than
the license there is for the softfware used. The Linux kernel had a lot
to do with this.

We're in a new era.

Ballmer's not dumb. He's on the right track. Late, like most people, but
on the right track. While people were counting how many Linux servers
were being sold over the last few years, few really noticed what they
were being used for. Weblogs on LAMP servers with Google Ads. Heck, just
look at Google.

Software costs *are* moving toward 0, perhaps partly because of the FOSS
out there. Transaction costs are moving toward infinity, also partly
because of the FOSS movement. The trick is where they will balance, how
they will balance, and how telecom regulation and technology will
enable/hamper them.

--
Taran Rampersad
cnd@knowprose.com

http://www.knowprose.com
http://www.your2ndplace.com
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"Criticize by Creating" - Michelangelo
"The present is theirs; the future, for which I really worked, is mine." - =
Nikola Tesla