Re: ISDN digest 136

[Robert Berger <rberger@Internex.NET>]

  On the "adaptive" DSL:
  
  Think of it as a glorified T1.
  
  It will be a nice addition to the quiver of techniques to deliver last mile
  connectivity to the Internet.
  
  All it addresses is the "last mile". It will need a nice, fat high 
  performance, expensive Internet backbone behind it. It will require a nice
  hefty ATM to switched ethernet box at each wiring center. It will need
  enough bandwidth and ethernet switched ports to support each DSL line driver
  (ie each line to the home).
  
  My prediction:
  DSL will be the first new technolog to deliver speeds at or greater than T1
  to end user sites in any volume (but not more than a few million max) in the
  next 3 years. It will happen before similar volumes of (working) cable modem
  systems at similar real speeds to end users.
  
  It will not cost $50/month. The price will be competitive with existing
  business Internet services at similar speeds at that time ($500 -
  $2000/month). 
  
  It will not be a consumer service unless it can also cost effectively
  (through the content providers, bacbone and to the end user) deliver video
  on demand. It probably won't deliver video on demand in that time frame. 
  
  
                   Robert J. Berger - CTO / Founder
  InterNex Information Services, Inc. 2302 Walsh Rd. Santa Clara, CA 95051
                 Voice: 408-327-2290 Fax: 408-496-5484