China in WTO means more US tobacco exports

[Robert Weissman <rob@essential.org>]

September 6, 1999 	  	
Dow Jones Newswires
China's WTO Entry Seen Boosting US Commodity Exports
SINGAPORE -- Exports of various commodities from the U.S. to China will see 
substantial gains if China joins the World Trade Organization, according to 
a recent report by the U.S. International Trade Commission.
The trade commission forecast U.S. wheat exports to China will rise by 21%, 
and exports of other grains will climb 34%. Cotton exports to the Chinese 
market will likely jump by 68%, while vegetable oils exports will more than 
double, according to the report. The report didn't specify a base for the 
percentage growth.
The report, released Thursday, assesses the probable effects on the U.S. 
economy of China's accession to the WTO.
"The U.S. sectors most positively affected by China's trade reforms would 
be agriculture, paper and pulp, chemicals, rubber and plastics, other 
transport equipment (including aircraft), and machinery and equipment," 
according to the report.
"Exports of cotton, beverages and tobacco, and vegetable oils to China are 
expected to increase significantly as a result of the tariff reductions 
proposed by China. Wheat and other grain (for example, corn) exports, (for 
which) tariff reductions aren't large, would also increase," said the trade 
commission.
In April, China offered to replace nontariff barriers with tariff rate 
quotas on a range of agricultural products, the ITC said. In a tariff rate 
quota system, a low tariff rate is applied to imports of a product up to a 
particular amount, and a higher tariff is applied to imports in excess of 
that amount.
The table below shows the impact of China's April tariff proposal on U.S. 
exports to China by sector. The forecasts are expressed in terms of static 
plus growth effects. Growth effects include productivity growth and capital 
accumulation associated with China's trade liberalization, according to the 
ITC.
   Sector                    US$ millions           % change
   wheat                          +42.8               +20.8
   other grain                    +66.4               +33.6
   oilseeds                        -1.9                -2.9
   cotton                        +252.3               +67.7
   vegetable oils                +294.4              +154.1
   beverages and tobacco         +217.7              +127.3
   textiles                       +47.9               +23.9
   wearing apparel                +12.5               +29.1
   footwear and leather          +138.1               +23.8
   wood products                  +10.1                +4.2
   paper and pulp                +102.3               +14.5
   chemicals, rubber, plastics   +170.0                +4.8
   mineral products               +17.9                +6.9
   iron and steel                 +16.4                +5.1
   other metals                   +23.9               +10.1
   metal products                 +70.9               +14.3