NIEHS/EPA Superfund Basic Research Program 'Research Brief' - Num ber 59

[Joseph R Parrish Jr <JoeParrish@compuserve.com>]

Beside the Newark Diamond Shamrock dioxins Superfund site is the 
Essex County Incinerator in Newark, NJ, which is burning the New York City 
garbage right now and emitting huge quantities of dioxins and other toxics.  
How much disease could there be in such a neighborhood?  
How can this travestry be permitted?
Joe Parrish
NJ Environmental Watch
November 17, 1999

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From:	"Inhof.Christina", INTERNET:inhof@niehs.nih.gov
TO:	"'Research Brief List'", INTERNET:sf-brief@bobo.niehs.nih.gov
DATE:	11/17/99 9:26 AM

RE:	NIEHS/EPA Superfund Basic Research Program 'Research Brief' - Num ber 59
 
SBRP "Research Brief" - Number 59

Title:  New Mapping Method is Developed for Analysis of Environmental
Epidemiological Data 

Looking at disease patterns on a map provides some of the most provocative
clues to environmental causes of disease. Unfortunately, these patterns are
not always easy to interpret. A cluster of cases on a map might merely
represent the pattern of where people live. Without some information on the
underlying population density, maps of disease occurrence are almost
impossible to understand. Determining population density can be challenging,
however, because we usually only know the population of arbitrary geographic
areas such as census tracts, towns or counties. Conversely, trying to find
local excesses of disease by using routinely collected vital statistics may
fail if the disease straddles boundaries or becomes "diluted" by a much
larger area where disease rates are normal. New methods of picturing local
excesses of disease are greatly needed.

Researchers at Boston University have developed a new mapping method that is
providing a more effective way to identify disease hotspots. This method has
been successfully used to produce maps of breast cancer occurrence in a
section of Cape Cod, Massachusetts known to have elevated cancer rates.
Research and development have been focused in particular on residents of
Upper Cape Cod who developed breast cancer between 1983 and 1994. 

The locations of all the cancer cases' residences for the last 40 years were
coded and entered into a computerized mapping system that allows complex
calculations to be performed on the map and its contents. Similar
information was obtained from a random sample of controls. The availability
of the geographic information from the controls allowed the researchers to
make a picture of the background distribution of the population, which,
along with the locations of the cancer cases, made it possible to produce
the maps of breast cancer occurrence in Upper Cape Cod. 

The resulting picture revealed the presence of a hotspot related to an
activity at a nearby Superfund site. Although this activity had previously
been identified as a possible factor in the excess cancer of this area, the
identification was much less specific than what was found through the new
mapping method and did not locate the area of excess geographically. 

One of the special features of this mapping method is that it gives the
researchers the capability to smooth the picture at will to average out
random noise. Known as adaptive rate stabilization, this feature indicates
the degree to which local rates of disease are increased or decreased.
Additional techniques were developed to test whether the localized excesses
appearing on the maps were produced by chance. The mapping method is being
developed further to take into account other risk factors that might reflect
disease risk.

This new method represents a significant advance in visualizing potential
relationships between geography, environment and cancer. Since locations are
geographically coded by latitude and longitude, questions of arbitrary
geographic boundaries are resolved. This capability to "picture" disease
rates gives both the researchers and the public a way to readily see where
risks are high and low in a region. It can also provide clues to
geographically-related environmental factors that might cause cancer.
_______________________________________________________________

For more information please contact:    

David Ozonoff, M.D., M.P.H.
Department of Environmental Health
Boston University School of Public Health
715 Albany Street
Boston, MA  02118
Phone: (617) 638-4620
Email: dozonoff@bu.edu
Website: http://www-busph.bu.edu/ 
____________________________________________________________

As always, your feedback is welcomed.

Beth Anderson
Program Analyst
Superfund Basic Research Program
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
tainer@niehs.nih.gov
_______________________________________________________________

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Message-ID: <9CD202B20FE4D211828800A0C955FB40A4300A@drucker.niehs.nih.gov>
From: "Inhof.Christina" <inhof@niehs.nih.gov>
To: "'Research Brief List'" <sf-brief@bobo.niehs.nih.gov>
Subject: NIEHS/EPA Superfund Basic Research Program 'Research Brief' - Num
	ber 59
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 09:22:34 -0500