How Much Has Bill Overcharged America?

[charles mueller <cmueller@metrolink.net>]

          I haven't seen any figures here yet as to how many dollars we're
  actually talking about--nothing on the industry's total sales, Microsoft's
  revenues (hardware, software), it's reported total/unit costs, net profits,
  and so on.  The Heritage Foundation--in its defense of Bill--gives us these
  beginning numbers:
  
          1.  1996 'Computer Industry'
  Sales...............................$570 billion
  
          2.  Microsoft's 1996 'Computer Industry' Sales..........$ 10 billion
  (2%)
  
          3.  Industry's 1996 'Software Revenues'......................$ 250
  billion
  
          4.  Microsoft's 1996 'Software Revenues'.....................$
  9.4 billion (4%)
  
  (See http://www.heritage.org/heritage/library/categories/regulation/fyi162.html)
  
          If Bill Gates really has serious monopoly power in the computer
  industry, it is likely that the 'costs' he has imposed on it extend far
  beyond the 'paltry' $10 billion or so he reels into the Microsoft coffers
  each year.  On the basis of our century of U.S. antitrust experience, we
  would expect that a removal of his monopoly would (a) drastically deflate
  his own $10 billion 'take' in 2 ways, by collapsing his unit prices and
  squeezing the waste out of his unit costs, plus (b) dramatically shrink the
  overall (and unit) costs of the REST of the computer industry, including
  both the hardware and software sides.  In other words, ending a monopoly in
  a 'small' but key segment of an industry almost invariably brings a vast
  reduction in its OVERALL costs, prices, and total revenue.  The lack of
  competition generates bloat and unavoidable inefficiencies that pyramid
  throughout the choked industry.  
  
          Historically, successful monopoly cases have caused industry
  revenues (units sold times price, or total cost to the consumer) to drop by
  some 10% to as much as 75%--most frequently something in the roughly 30%
  range.  A conservative estimate here, for example, would suggest that Bill's
  monopoly is costing the consumer at least 10% of the overall computer
  industry's $570 billion in yearly sales, e.g., $57 billion per annum.
  
          As that good ol' boy from Illinois,  Senator Ev' Dirksen, once
  reminded us, "A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking
  about real money."
  
          Charles Mueller, Editor
          ANTITRUST LAW & ECONOMICS REVIEW
          http://webpages.metrolink.net/~cmueller