AOL Deal

[Bryce Jones <brycej@truman.edu>]

AOL and Netscape say they plan to continue to revise and distribute
Navigator.  The involvement of Sun (various cross deals) gives some
assurance that this may happen (particularly since Sun's Java is an
important element in a browser).  Needless to say, Sun and Microsoft are
not friends right now.
There are still 3 reasons when AOL might dump Navigator leaving IE as
the only major browser left:  (1)  AOL apparently has important space on
the default Windows desktop.  I believe this deal is up shortly.  Will
they be willing to give this up?  MS has a dozen ways to get you to do
things their way.  (2)  Navigator, since it is distributed free, is a
money loser and will continue to be--unless the current MS trial does
something about its predatory pricing-$0.  (3) AOL will have to revise
completely its AOL software if they adopt Navigator.  Right AOL software
is based on MS's IE.  This is another money loser.
Even if AOL stays the course, some worry that it might become the 800
pound gorilla in regard to the Internet.  Not Microsoft.  Even I find
this hard to believe that.  Microsoft will always have an advantage
(unless there is court action) since you can't get to the browser except
through the operating system.
But let us keep our eye on the prize.  It is not the browser per se but
the desktop of the browser which can direct customers to particular
Internet stores--predicted to be several hundred billion dollars in two
years.  He who controls the browser desktop can have his hand in all of
these transactions.
Bryce Jones
Truman State University